← MVP x DTR Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at MVP x DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.1% | -14.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Longsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |